North Atlantic Marine Weather Discussion
AGNT40 KWNM 051956 CCA MIMATN Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean...CORRECTED NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 256 PM EST Sat Jan 5 2019 .FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant .weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N. At 15Z there was an ASCAT pass across much of the offshore with the exception of the eastern areas of NT1 waters and northern mid Atlc waters. Max winds were to 35 kt over the outer and inner waters of the mid Atlc in advance of the cold front and also just W of the front. Low pressure at 18Z was off the S NJ coast and moving NE and intensifying with a cold front over the over the outer waters of the mid Atlc. A occluded front extended E from the low to the cold front and also the warm front extended E from the occluded front. There was active TSTM activity E of the cold front which was moving E and also also in advance of the occluded front that is moving N over the inner waters of the New England waters. There was TSTM activity also near the S quadrant of the low pressure center and a few strikes S of the warm front over the outer waters of the northern mid Atlc waters. Models track the low pressure NE over the southern areas of the New England waters this afternoon and pass NE of the waters tonight. Will continue to favor the GFS for the short term with gales continuing through tonight with winds to 45 kt along and near the Gulf Stream over the outer Northern mid Atlc waters. Models are also showing a brief lull with gales possibly ending for a short time Sun morning and then returning Sun afternoon and Sun night with strong cold air advection strengthening the winds over the northern and central areas of the offshore waters. High pressure builds into the area from the W and NW Mon into Mon night. As was the case last night prefer the ECMWF with the low pressure that moves E over the New England waters late Tue and its cold front that moves over the offshore waters Tue and Tue night. The UKMET also shows a similar track and timing with the low pressure. GFS is similar with gales as the UKMET/ECMWF, although does not depict surface low as other guidance indicates. Plan to continue with gales over the outer waters of the mid Atlc waters in advance of the cold front Tue and Tue night. This will be followed by another low pressure with a reinforcing cold front later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Plan to have gales over the mid Atlc waters with the UKMET/ECMWF and GFS also showing similar trends. By Thu the upper shortwave moves E over the offshore waters with gales returning for the mid Atlc waters and possibly the New England waters. Will likely keep winds to 35 kt on Thu. All Models do show the meridional trof passing E of the offshore Thu night with surface winds diminishing over the offshore waters. .SEAS...The 18Z sea state analysis indicates seas matched up well with both the WNA and ECMWF WAM forecast values. For the wave grids, continue to plan on using the ECMWF WAM throughout forecast period. ECMWF wam is higher with seas by late Wed night into Thu. This may be a bit too high over the mid Atlc waters and will adjust somewhat lower by about 15%. .EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NA .WARNINGS...Preliminary. .NT1 New England Waters... .ANZ800...Gulf of Maine... Gale Sunday night. .ANZ805...Georges Bank west of 68W... Gale Sunday night. .ANZ900...Georges Bank east of 68W... Gale Possible Tuesday night. .ANZ810...South of New England... Gale Sunday night. .NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters... .ANZ915...Hudson Canyon to the Great South Channel... Gale today into tonight. Gale Sunday night. .ANZ920...Baltimore Canyon to the Great South Channel... Gale today into tonight. Gale Sunday night. Gale Possible Tuesday night. .ANZ905...The Great South Channel to the Hague Line... Gale tonight. Gale Sunday night. Gale Possible Tuesday night. .ANZ910...East of the Great South Channel and south of 39N... Gale today into tonight. Gale Sunday night. Gale Possible Tuesday night. .ANZ925...Outer Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... Gale today into tonight. Gale Possible Tuesday. Gale Possible Thursday. .ANZ830...Inner Waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras... Gale Possible Thursday. .ANZ930...Outer Waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... Gale Possible Thursday. $$ .Forecaster Rowland. Ocean Prediction Center.