North Pacific Marine Weather Discussion
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AGPN40 KWNM 061541 MIMPAC Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 741 AM PST Thu Dec 6 2018 .FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant .weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W. At 12Z a coastal trof was along the OR and WA coast. Elsewhere across the southern CA waters low pressure was near the southern CA coast and should remain near the coast into tonight before moving inland later tonight. Another low was over the outer waters of southern CA and moves SE today and merges with the low pressure near the coast. A cold front moves towards the WA/OR waters later tonight and moves E across WA/OR and northern CA waters Fri. Will stay with current headlines for Gales with no changes. Another stronger cold front moves E over the waters late Sat and Sat night. No changes will be made to forecast conditions during this event. By Sun into Mon low pressure will cross the WA waters. The associated cold front has trended stronger with the winds in advance of the front compared to yesterday guidance. At the moment will not be making any changes, but may need to adjust winds. Confidence for this event is low at the moment, so will take a closer look when 12Z model guidance comes in. ----------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... The ASCAT pass from 05Z indicates mainly light winds across the offshore waters with maximum to 25 kt across the central California waters. A ridge axis is evident just W of the PZ6 waters. For the most part the global models are in pretty good agreement through 12Z Saturday, then begin to diverge slightly. The UKMET is the outlier among the GFS/ECMWF and UKMET, For the most part I discounted it for much of the forecast, especially later in the period where the timing of the frontal passages don't match up with the other global models. I will populate the wind grids using the GFS through 12Z Sat, while making minor edits is the wind field to keep continuity. I will use a 50/50 blend of the GFS/ECMWF for the remainder of the forecast periods with minor edits as needed. Seas...The ENP and WAM were initialized ok across the offshore waters and seem like a reasonable output from their corresponding wind field. I will populate the wave grids using the same blend as with the winds. .EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. .WARNINGS...Preliminary. .PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters... .PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... Gale Possible Saturday night. .PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... Gale Friday. Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night. .PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... Gale Possible Saturday night. .PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... Gale Friday. Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night. .PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR... Gale Possible Saturday night. .PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George... Gale Possible Saturday night. .PZ6 California Waters... .PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena... Gale Possible Saturday night. $$ .Forecaster Rowland/Shaw. Ocean Prediction Center.
