OPC N Pacific Marine Weather Discussion


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North Pacific Marine Weather Discussion

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AGPN40 KWNM 061541
MIMPAC Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
741 AM PST Thu Dec 6 2018 .FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant .weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W. At 12Z a coastal trof was along the OR and WA coast. Elsewhere
across the southern CA waters low pressure was near the southern
CA coast and should remain near the coast into tonight before
moving inland later tonight. Another low was over the outer
waters of southern CA and moves SE today and merges with the low
pressure near the coast. A cold front moves towards the WA/OR
waters later tonight and moves E across WA/OR and northern CA
waters Fri. Will stay with current headlines for Gales with no
changes. Another stronger cold front moves E over the waters
late Sat and Sat night. No changes will be made to forecast
conditions during this event. By Sun into Mon low pressure will
cross the WA waters. The associated cold front has trended
stronger with the winds in advance of the front compared to
yesterday guidance. At the moment will not be making any changes,
but may need to adjust winds. Confidence for this event is low at
the moment, so will take a closer look when 12Z model guidance
comes in. -----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... The ASCAT pass from 05Z indicates mainly light winds across the
offshore waters with maximum to 25 kt across the central
California waters. A ridge axis is evident just W of the PZ6
waters. For the most part the global models are in pretty good
agreement through 12Z Saturday, then begin to diverge slightly.
The UKMET is the outlier among the GFS/ECMWF and UKMET, For the
most part I discounted it for much of the forecast, especially
later in the period where the timing of the frontal passages
don't match up with the other global models. I will populate the
wind grids using the GFS through 12Z Sat, while making minor
edits is the wind field to keep continuity. I will use a 50/50
blend of the GFS/ECMWF for the remainder of the forecast periods
with minor edits as needed. Seas...The ENP and WAM were initialized ok across the offshore
waters and seem like a reasonable output from their corresponding
wind field. I will populate the wave grids using the same blend
as with the winds. .EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. .WARNINGS...Preliminary. .PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... Gale Friday. Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night. .PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... Gale Friday. Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night. .PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR... Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George... Gale Possible Saturday night. .PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena... Gale Possible Saturday night. $$ .Forecaster Rowland/Shaw. Ocean Prediction Center.